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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 72.6% to 100.0%.

The New York Jets defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in football (40.0) to running backs since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Ezekiel Elliott has been among the weakest RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging just 6.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among running backs.

Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 2.81 yards-per-target compared to a 3.95 rate last season.

The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (75.6%).

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