Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.0 plays per game.
Ezekiel Elliott has accrued a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 3.04 yards-per-target compared to a 3.95 rate last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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