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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog this week.

The predictive model expects Ezekiel Elliott to notch 5.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.

While Ezekiel Elliott has accounted for 9.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of New England's offense in this game at 19.0%.

Ezekiel Elliott has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).

Ezekiel Elliott's 87.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 72.6% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the New England Patriots.

The projections expect the Patriots to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

As it relates to air yards, Ezekiel Elliott grades out in the paltry 11th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

More Ezekiel Elliott Player Props

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