Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
In this week's contest, Ezekiel Elliott is predicted by the model to find himself in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.7 targets.
While Ezekiel Elliott has received 8.7% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New England's pass game in this contest at 17.0%.
Ezekiel Elliott has posted many more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
Ezekiel Elliott has notched a feeble -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 17th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
This year, the daunting Chiefs defense has yielded a feeble 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

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