Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
Ezekiel Elliott's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 72.7% to 89.3%.
Ezekiel Elliott's 5.0 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.0 mark.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Ezekiel Elliott has been used less as a potential target this season (26.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.1%).
Ezekiel Elliott has accumulated a feeble -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 18th percentile among running backs.
This year, the imposing Chargers defense has allowed a mere 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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