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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.

Ezekiel Elliott's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 72.7% to 89.3%.

Ezekiel Elliott's 5.0 adjusted yards per target this season marks a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.0 mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Ezekiel Elliott has been used less as a potential target this season (26.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (44.1%).

Ezekiel Elliott has accumulated a feeble -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 18th percentile among running backs.

This year, the imposing Chargers defense has allowed a mere 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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