Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
Ezekiel Elliott's 11.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year represents a meaningful gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.0 figure.
Ezekiel Elliott's 88.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a noteable growth in his receiving prowess over last season's 72.6% figure.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 5.19 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 3.95 figure last season.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Ezekiel Elliott's 28.0% Route% this season marks a noteable diminishment in his passing attack volume over last season's 44.1% figure.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Giants defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) vs. RBs this year.

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