Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott has run a route on 44.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the weakest pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.0 yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs, completing a mere 72.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 21st percentile.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the least effective receivers in football among running backs, averaging a measly 3.95 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 25th percentile.