Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has given their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
Ezekiel Elliott has totaled a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott's 6.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 16.1.
Ezekiel Elliott has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (5.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

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