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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Ezekiel Elliott has posted a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.

Ezekiel Elliott's 7.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 16.1.

Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.1% to 60.0%.

Ezekiel Elliott's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-per-target vs a 5.05 figure last year.

More Ezekiel Elliott Player Props

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