Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 141.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 78.9%.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has allowed their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 55.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott has been used less as a potential target this season (43.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (58.6%).
Ezekiel Elliott has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (7.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).

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