Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 76.6%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (43.0) versus running backs this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott has been less involved as a potential target this season (43.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (58.6%).
Ezekiel Elliott has posted a mere -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 23rd percentile among RBs.

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