Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 72.2% to 80.0%.
Ezekiel Elliott's skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, compiling 8.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 5.90 figure last season.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has not been good when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 8.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Ezekiel Elliott has gone out for fewer passes this year (44.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (58.6%).
Ezekiel Elliott has accumulated a meager -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 20th percentile among RBs.

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