Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in just 72.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 14th percentile.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the least efficient receivers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a mere 4.72 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 10th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.