Ezekiel Elliott Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+880/-3000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (10.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Ezekiel Elliott has posted a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Ezekiel Elliott's 7.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 16.1.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.1% to 60.0%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.