Ezekiel Elliott Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+880/-3000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has put up a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, completing just 74.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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