Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 27, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 4 points.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cowboys since the start of last season (a massive 60.6 per game on average).
Dallas's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats reduced) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
After making up 44.0% of his team's rush attempts last year, Ezekiel Elliott has played a smaller part in the run game this year, currently accounting for just 32.2%.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New York's group of DTs has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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