Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 9, 2024 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-143).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys last year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).
The Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Ezekiel Elliott has received 45.0% of his team's run game usage last year, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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