Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 6:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run on 39.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (35.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (50.9%).
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Miami's group of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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