Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots rank as the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 40.9% run rate.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

Favors Under

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Ezekiel Elliott has been a less important option in his offense's run game this season (33.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.9%).
The Bills linebackers rank as the 7th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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