Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run on 44.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Favors Under

After comprising 50.9% of his offense's carries last season, Ezekiel Elliott has been less involved in the running game this season, now sitting at just 31.4%.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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