Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 40.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to accrue 14.7 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott has been given 58.8% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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