Ezekiel Elliott Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:26 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys have been the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to notch 12.5 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (41.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.9% in games he has played).

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