Evan Hull Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Evan Hull

NFL · Player Props

Evan Hull

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:11 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Hull Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (40.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

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