Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 4:02 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+108/-139).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
In this week's game, Evan Engram is forecasted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.3 targets.
The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Jaguars to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Jaguars have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
Evan Engram's 75.6% Route Participation% this year represents a substantial regression in his passing offense usage over last year's 87.4% rate.
Evan Engram's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, notching just 4.9 adjusted receptions vs 6.7 last season.
The Philadelphia defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

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