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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars will be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.87 seconds per snap.

Our trusted projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 7.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Evan Engram has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in football.

Evan Engram's receiving talent has declined this year, averaging a measly 5.2 adjusted catches vs 6.7 last year.

Evan Engram's 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a noteworthy regression in his receiving talent over last season's 81.3% rate.

When it comes to defensive tackles pass-rushing, New York's unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

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