Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per play.
The projections expect Evan Engram to garner 9.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Evan Engram's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 45.4.
The Jacksonville O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Evan Engram's receiving performance has worsened this year, totaling a mere 5.0 adjusted catches compared to 6.7 last year.
Evan Engram's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.3% to 72.0%.
This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has allowed a meager 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the league.
The Houston defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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