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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Mac Jones.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Jaguars to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.

Evan Engram's play as a receiver has worsened this year, averaging just 5.0 adjusted catches vs 6.7 last year.

Evan Engram's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 81.3% to 71.8%.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (66.2%) versus TEs this year (66.2%).

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