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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+132/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 5.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Evan Engram's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.6.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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