Evan Engram Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
Evan Engram has run a route on 79.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.