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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.

Evan Engram has run a route on 78.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.5%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.5%).

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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