Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per play.
The projections expect Evan Engram to garner 9.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When it comes to air yards, Evan Engram grades out in the towering 95th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a remarkable 46.0 per game.
Evan Engram's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 45.4.

Favors Under

Evan Engram has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
Evan Engram's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.3% to 72.0%.
Evan Engram's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 5.92 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.99 rate last season.
Evan Engram's skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, accumulating just 3.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.49 figure last year.
This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has allowed a meager 60.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the league.

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