Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:26 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.60 seconds per play.
Evan Engram has run a route on 83.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
The predictive model expects Evan Engram to garner 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Evan Engram has posted a monstrous 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Jaguars O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Atlanta's group of safeties has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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