Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-fastest pace in the league (context-neutralized) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Evan Engram has run a route on 80.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to accumulate 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 37.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.

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