Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 5.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.6.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Evan Engram has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a mere 5.77 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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