Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to total 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.6.

Favors Under

Evan Engram has been among the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging just 5.78 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
Evan Engram has been among the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.