Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has run a route on 78.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Evan Engram has been among the least efficient receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a measly 6.06 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 11th percentile.
Evan Engram has been among the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.