Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-149/+109).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to total 7.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (70%) versus tight ends this year (70.0%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.