Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to garner 6.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram has compiled many more air yards this season (38.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 28.6.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.