Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to garner 6.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency against tight ends this year, surrendering 5.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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