Evan Engram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
Evan Engram has run a route on 78.5% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Evan Engram has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging just 5.97 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 6th percentile.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.