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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-417).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -385 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -417.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.41 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.3% in games he has played).

Evan Engram has compiled many more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (24.0 per game).

Evan Engram's 38.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.6.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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