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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+342/-657).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -635 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -657.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).

Evan Engram has notched quite a few more air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).

Evan Engram's 36.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Evan Engram ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.

The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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