Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+328/-614).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -572 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -614.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (15.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
Evan Engram has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.6.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Evan Engram ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.