Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-781).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -693 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -781.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (12.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played).
Evan Engram has posted a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among TEs.
Evan Engram's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Evan Engram ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.