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Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+369/-745).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -588 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -745.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (14.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).

Evan Engram has posted a monstrous 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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