Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+331/-623).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -619 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -623.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.1% in games he has played).
Evan Engram has totaled a whopping 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.
Evan Engram's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.5%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.5%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.