Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+373/-758).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +375 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +373.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has totaled a monstrous 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among tight ends.
Evan Engram's 28.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 81st percentile for TEs.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.56 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Evan Engram has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among TEs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.