Evan Engram Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Evan Engram

NFL · Player Props

Evan Engram

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+308/-556).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +330 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +308.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Evan Engram has totaled many more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
Evan Engram's 32.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 87th percentile for TEs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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