My Account Log Out
 
 
Evan Engram

Evan Engram Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Evan Engram Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-546).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -503 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -546.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.8% in games he has played).
  • Evan Engram has accrued significantly more air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
  • Evan Engram's 34.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 28.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
  • The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™