Eric Saubert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Eric Saubert

TE · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Eric Saubert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Eric Saubert's 16.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 4.0.
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Eric Saubert's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.5% to 56.2%.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.